‘CODA’ win makes Best Picture Oscar race for Toss-Up – The Hollywood Reporter

After the conclusion of the 33rd annual Producers Guild of America Awards on Saturday night, as I exited the Fairmont Century Plaza Hotel in Century City, I spotted something in the distance that had been set up for Sunday’s Los Angeles Marathon, but fair is how at the Oscar race: the finish line.

After an oppressively long ceremony and season, KODA walked away less than a week later with the PGA’s top honor, the Darryl F. Zanuck Award, for Outstanding Producer for a Motion Picture The power of the dog won top honors at the Critics Choice and BAFTA Awards. And so, by all indications, we are now seeing a two-horse race for the best picture Oscar – pitting two films directed by a woman and distributed by a streamer against each other – presented in a week on Sunday will.

why does the PGA Awards matter in terms of predicting the Oscar for best picture? Not because the academy is overcrowded with producers — in fact, the academy’s producer branch accounts for less than seven percent of its total membership — but because the PGA’s grand prize is the only significant pre-Oscar award determined by the same obscure “preferred choice.” , which the Academy uses to determine the winner of their Academy Award for Best Picture. Additionally, the announcement of the PGA’s grand prize comes right in the middle of the final round of Oscar voting (March 17-22) and therefore could both reflect and sustain the movement KODA‘s favor.

With a best picture race, which I would now classify as a real toss-up, maybe slightly ajar KODAhere’s a look at the strongest reasons to predict winning an Oscar for best picture KODA and The power of the dogrespectively (Any other result would be one of the biggest surprises in Oscars history.)

The case for KODA

Don’t underestimate – forgive me – the power of the underdog. KODA is the little film that could (it was made on a low budget and came out of Sundance on its way, yes, to be acquired by Apple) and has many passionately cheering it on, partly because its story is so moving, partly because everyone, involved is just so damn likeable. And that plays a big role when considering the preference choice mentioned above.

It’s true, you’ve probably heard that before KODA goes to the Oscars with just three nominations — picture, supporting actor, and adapted screenplay — and hasn’t done a film since 1932 Grand hotel won best picture with fewer than four…but that’s a grossly false statistic.

It’s tempting to read that “no film in 90 years has won Best Picture with fewer than four total nominations,” but what it really means is that no film in the 11 Oscars immediately follows it Grand hotel or at the 12 Oscars immediately preceding this one – the only period in those 90 years when the Oscar for Best Picture was not limited to five places and the winner was determined by ranked voting rather than by majority vote with fewer than four overall names. The 23-year stretch is still daunting, but far less daunting than the 90-year stretch.

And in the current era of preference, many of the best image stats long considered “essential” have fallen off the books: argon and Green Book won without a director’s name; birdman won with no film edit name; The shape of the water, Green Book and nomadic country won with no Best Ensemble SAG Award nominations; and the list goes on.

But here’s another statistic to consider: In the current era of preference, which is the past 12 years, no film has won both the top SAG and PGA awards KODA has now done – meaning The king’s speech, argon and birdman – Did not on to win the Oscar for Best Picture.

Plus, remember that a movie miss a key nom – as KODA‘S Sian Heder did in the director category – can actually motivate voters to get even more behind the same film in the picture race. (Just ask argon‘S Ben Affleck.) And some voters will be watching Jane Campionslam-dunks in the Best Director race and decides to recognize the other nominee for Best Female Directed Film in the Best Picture category.

The bottom line is this: If you’re trying to understand what kind of film does well in the Academy’s preference poll, think about the four-year period that voters left moonlight to The shape of the water to Green Book to parasitea trajectory that seems almost as schizophrenic as American voters make it out to be George W Bush to Barack Obama to donald trump to Joe Biden. These films have practically nothing in common – apart from for the fact that they are heart tugging and many people find them deeply moving.

The power of the dogDespite heading into the Oscars with the most nominations of the year, like all Campion films, it’s a bit colder and quite polarizing, but two things that don’t help make it a favourite. (See: the nomination leaders of the last four years, man, joker, The favourite and Romewho all lost the best picture.)

The power of the dog will likely register many #1 votes, but also many #9 and #10 votes KODA can expect some #1 votes, but many #2 and #3 votes, and the latter dynamic can push a film’s vote stack above the 50% threshold that is required victory More quickly.

The case for The power of the dog

The power of the dog is quite similar in many ways to last year’s Best Picture Oscar winner, nomadic country – not only in the sense that they’re both critically acclaimed dramas directed by women and set in the West, but also because they both appeal primarily to art-house types who don’t all like measured pacing or some Questions that the film raises left open to interpretation. In contrast, KODAargue naysayers, is a charming after-school TV movie, and many movie buffs are horrified, there is even a serious argument.

Furthermore, anecdotally, The power of the dog – how manyauthor-driven “films” – doing particularly well internationally. and KODAThe SAG and PGA honors wins seem a little less relevant to the Oscar race given that the groups that bestowed them are made up almost entirely of Americans, while the academy’s membership is now far more international than ever before. According to one knowledgeable source, up to 25 percent of Academy members now live outside the United States.

Both Apple and Netflix own — and have — spent significant resources on their respective campaigns. But Netflix has the added benefit of experience when it comes to running truly international campaigns, starting with Rome, and throughout the season they have been very active locally in London, Paris and Rome (major centers for Academy members) as well as in Campion’s native New Zealand and Australia to name but a few places showing their film and wooing voters. In other words, it is perhaps no coincidence that e.g. KODA wasn’t even nominated for Best Picture BAFTA Award, however The power of the dog won.

And if KODA is really popular, one might reasonably have expected that, in addition to Best Picture, there would be nominations from more than two branches of the academy, namely the Actors (Troy Kotsur in the Best Supporting Actor competition) and the writers (Heder in the Adapted Screenplay Competition). Wo, in this year when so many Academy members are emphasizing the importance of below-the-line Oscar categories, is here any Evidence of bottom line support for the film, either inside or outside the academy? (KODA wasn’t even nominated for top awards from the American Cinema Editors, the American Society of Cinematographers, the Cinema Audio Society, and the list goes on – in fact, his only guild nomination outside of the SAG and PGA came from the Writers Guild, for which The power of the dog was not eligible).

The power of the doghowever, certainly has serious support from all industries – his nominations, apart from Best Picture, came from the actors (four individual nominees), directors and writers (campion), cameramen, film editors and both music and sound engineers.

And if, as we all suspect, Campion is a slam-dunk to win best director, then why? would not your film also viewed comparatively highly? Image/director splits certainly happen, especially in the era of preferential voting, but that’s something to consider.

Finally, one of the biggest hurdles many suspect Netflix has faced in recent years — anti-streamer sentiment — is dashed by the fact KODA also comes from a streamer.

The final result

Buckle up, it’s going to be a rollercoaster week-long journey to Dolby!

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