Di war for Ukraine fit get one big effect on some African kontris and fit affect dia economies. Goments fit dey come under diplomatic pressure to choose side for di gbege wey dey rise between Russia and Western powers.
BBC Pidgin follow two Ogbonge pipo, Bismark Rewane and Professor Bola Akinterinwa wey be sabi pipo about mata of economy and international relationships to share wetin dem think about how kasala between Russia and Ukraine fit affect Nigera, Africa and wetin di continent suppose dey reason now.
According to Bismark Rewane, “anytime wey global tension dey, e go affect Africans sake of say we be part of di world… e go affect price of commodities, e go affect us sake of say dis tin get how e dey start and nobodi know wen e go end. Di sanctions and di effect on global trade flows go dey significant.”
Rewane add say “if di gbege generate to become full blast conflict, e means say price of oil go increase, price of gold go increase and dollar go depreciate for value and di financial market go face general disruption.
But no be only bad tins, e say good tins dey.
Nigeria go get higher revenues sake of sake oil price go up like 120 dollars per barrel, but di tension fit trigger global economy to recession, e also add.
We no fit live in isolation, we fit get short term benefit for oil but e go get long term lose sake of say we be part of global economy.
Di reason be say Russia be di third or fourth largest producer of oil, dem dey produce a lot of wheat, AK-47 and oda weapons.
Wetin be di gain for Nigeria
According to Rewane add say, “Nigeria dey produce gas, 14 to 15 percent of e export be natural gas, if Russia gas dey blocked, di demand for Nigeria gas go increase, e go be like more dan 100 dollars and e go mean say we go get more dollars but on di oda side we fit dey negatively impacted sake of global effect. If we no get direct deal wit dem we go get indirect dealing wit dem.” e tok
Professor Bola Akinterinwa wey be former Director General of di Nigerian Institute of International Affairs say e no believe say wetin dey happen na war between Russia and Ukraine, instead na war between sedition self determination and pipo wey no like sedition and self determination.
Na democracy dey cause di wahala wey dey Ukraine.
E say di NATO kontris wey America and di western allies dey support say think na Ukraine suppose determine weda dem go join or not but Russia no wan gree.
Meanwhile, Russia and NATO kontris bin don sign agreement for Budapest for 1994 say make dem respect territory.
But Russia don’t stop to respect the agreement.
Di implication for Nigeria be say if international communities fit support Ukraine for sedition, e mean say for Nigeria di international community go support self determination sake of say di kontri get groups like IPOB, MASSOB and odas wey wan separate.
Di problem for Nigeria dey serious past dat of Ukraine, di reason be say of recent, coups dey happun for Africa. E follow highlight how France don remove dia troops from kontris like Mali.
Prof Akinterinwa still tok say, “we all know say Nigeria no dey prepared for dat kind thing, di kontri foreign policy dey reactive. Russia go dictate conditions of help, and Africa go become di next theatre. Mali don already dey support Russia, dia foreign policy don already support dem. Di Ukraine gbege go further divide NATO and e go get impact on West Africa and Nigeria.”
E go get political impact, economic impact, social cultural impact, for all sides, na so di professor tok.
How did you go fit affect ordinary Africans?
Oil price don already high past $100 per barrel to hit dia highest level since 2014.
Di budgets of oil-producing countries like Nigeria and Angola fit get boost from di prices wey dey , but di cost of transport dey likely to rise for pipo across di continent. Dis go get knock-on effect on di prices of almost all oda products.
“E go become double-double of potential high food prices around di and higher energy prices wey dey push up inflation. And whom central banks respond by increasing interest rates, e go become triple wahala” na so Charlie tok Robertson, global chief economist for Renaissance Capital.
But di editor of di UK-based Africa Confidential publication, Patrick Smith, say di war offer big opportunities for oil- and gas-producing countries.
“Europe bin rush find alternatives to Russian gas, and the most reliable alternatives for Africa.
E be great opportunity for African states to move in, and get new deals done quickly,” e follow tok.